Engineering Global Power: From the Fall of Empires to the Greater Israel Scenario

Introduction: Does History Proceed According to a Methodology?

When studying the history of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first, a central question emerges: did the transfer of power between empires result from random interactions, or from a long-term methodology that reshaped the global balance of power?

This discussion proceeds from a specific hypothesis: that modern history can be read as a process of gradually reengineering the international order through the instruments of money, politics, media, and technology. According to this hypothesis, the major transformations of the past hundred years may be successive stages along a single trajectory, ultimately leading to the rise of a major regional political project in the Middle East.

First: The End of the Age of Traditional Empires

At the beginning of the twentieth century, the British Empire was the greatest power, controlling the most important maritime passages, possessing a network of colonies spanning continents, and wielding global economic influence; hence the saying that the sun never set on it.

But the two world wars radically changed this reality. Britain emerged burdened with debt and economically weakened, and its empire began gradually to disintegrate. Amid this transformation, what is known as the Balfour Declaration was issued in 1917: a political declaration supporting the establishment of a national home for the Jews in Palestine. The State of Israel was then established in 1948, just three decades later. Within this reading, this development can be understood as part of the reshaping of the political map of the Middle East alongside the decline of British power.

Second: Money as an Instrument for Reshaping the World

Alongside military transformations, transnational financial networks played an important role in shaping the world order. Among the names that appear in European economic history is the Rothschild family, whose name was associated with financing governments and major financial projects during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

Within this hypothesis, financial power becomes capable of financing wars, supporting governments, influencing economic policies, and reshaping international balances; money thus becomes one of the most important instruments for redesigning the world order.

Third: The Transfer of the Center of Power to the United States

After the Second World War, leadership of the international order passed to the United States, which became the dominant power through three pillars: the world's greatest military power, the global financial system established after the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the dominance of the dollar as a global reserve currency. American power, however, was not merely military but primarily economic.

Fourth: The Petrodollar… The Heart of the Economic System

In the 1970s, the petrodollar system emerged, based on a simple equation: selling oil globally in dollars, investing its revenues in the American economy, and maintaining the dollar as the principal currency of energy and trade.

The Arabian Gulf thereby became an essential element of the American economic system, because it provides the world's largest energy reserves, immense financial stability, and global investment flows. Cities such as Dubai have become global financial and commercial centers thanks to security and economic stability—a stability that created an element no less important than oil itself: confidence in the global economy.

Fifth: The Strategic Paradox

Comparing the Gulf's role with Israel's role in American strategy reveals a striking geopolitical paradox. The Gulf states constitute one of the pillars of the global economic system, providing stability in the energy market, the continued flow of dollar-priced oil, and massive investments within the American economy. Israel, by contrast, depends to a large extent on American support: military, financial, and political.

Yet military escalation in the region has threatened one of the most important arteries of the global economy: the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of global oil exports passes. Any disruption there has a direct impact on energy markets and the international economic balance.

The pivotal question thus emerges: why would a great power risk destabilizing the region on which an essential part of the economic system that grants it global dominance rests? Are we facing a temporary strategic contradiction, or do these transformations reflect a deeper stage in the reshaping of the international order?

Sixth: The Middle East as an Arena for Redrawing the Map

Since the end of the Cold War, the Middle East has become an arena of recurring conflicts: the war in Afghanistan, the Iraq War, the war in Syria, and the continuing tensions with Iran. Within this reading, these conflicts can be understood as part of the reshaping of the region's political geography. Iran, for its part, often targets maritime passages, oil tankers, and the economic infrastructure of energy; that is, it strikes at the economic engine of the world order.

Seventh: The Rise of the New Financial Power

In the twenty-first century, financial institutions have emerged that manage trillions of dollars and hold investments in thousands of companies around the world. Within this hypothesis, these companies become part of a global financial network capable of influencing markets, major corporations, and economic policies; power thus gradually shifts from states to financial networks.

Eighth: Political Influence Within the United States

Alongside money, lobbying groups play an important role within the American political system, operating through Congress, the Senate, and electoral campaigns. Within this reading, political influence becomes part of a broader system encompassing money, media, and influence over public opinion.

Ninth: The World at a Crossroads

The world order today appears to stand at a moment of historical transformation, with several indicators: swelling American debt, escalating geopolitical conflicts, Middle Eastern tensions, and challenges facing the global financial system. These indicators may mean that the international order is undergoing a profound reshaping.

Tenth: Technology… The New Power

In the near future, the decisive factor may be neither oil nor armies, but technology.

The first stage (2025–2035): The digital economy becomes the center of power, with the world revolving around artificial intelligence, big data, and digital infrastructure; data becomes the new oil.

The second stage (2035–2045): The emergence of a robot economy, with automated factories, robotic armies, and automated services; wars turn into cyberwars, conflict over satellites, and attacks on digital infrastructure.

The third stage (2045–2055): A major transformation in the balance of power; if the dollar-linked financial system is shaken, a new system may emerge that relies on digital currencies, global financial networks, and an economy based on artificial intelligence.

Despite technological transformation, the Middle East will remain a strategic pivot, but its importance will expand to encompass trade routes, energy, and data centers. Cities such as Dubai, Riyadh, and Doha may become global digital and economic centers. In this context, Israel may play a leading role because of its superiority in cybersecurity, military technology, and innovation. If wars become digital, states that possess technology may wield greater influence than states that depend on natural resources.

The Butterfly Cycle: An Analogy for Understanding

Imagine that the history of power resembles the life cycle of a butterfly: egg ← larva ← chrysalis ← butterfly.

The egg: The beginning of the idea, with the emergence of the Zionist movement in Europe, followed by the Balfour Declaration, which planted the first seed of a long-term project. The larva: The British Empire accumulates influence and resources and builds an immense political and economic network. The chrysalis: After the Second World War, the United States emerges as a great power leading the world order, and Israel emerges as an influential ally within the system. The butterfly: The stage that some regard as representing the completion of the project, in which influence transforms into a new form of power.

What appear to us to be disparate events may thus be different stages of a single, long cycle: an idea is planted, a power accumulates resources, a world order reshapes itself, and then a new form of influence emerges.

The Spider's House: The Qur'anic Analogy

In Surat al-ʿAnkabut, the Qur'an depicts the overbearing human powers in the time of Moses: Qarun, Pharaoh, and Haman, who acted arrogantly despite the clear proofs. God explains their fate while emphasizing that the wrongdoing came from themselves.

﴿مَثَلُ الَّذِينَ اتَّخَذُوا مِن دُونِ اللَّهِ أَوْلِيَاءَ كَمَثَلِ الْعَنكَبُوتِ اتَّخَذَتْ بَيْتًا وَإِنَّ أَوْهَنَ الْبُيُوتِ لَبَيْتُ الْعَنكَبُوتِ﴾ (The likeness of those who take protectors other than God is that of the spider that makes a house; and surely the frailest of houses is the spider's house.) [al-ʿAnkabut: 41]

The precisely engineered house: Just as the spider builds its house with fine threads reaching its center, hidden networks in politics, economics, and technology operate according to a meticulous design. Every small event is connected by threads leading to the center of power, and it is difficult for others to perceive the full picture.

Internal frailty: Despite their apparent complexity, these powers remain fragile before the will of God. Any system, however extensively planned, is in its essence frailer than the spider's house.

Limited human understanding: Many people do not comprehend the fragility of these powers; they see their outward strength and submit to it without realizing that it is temporary and limited.

Divine centrality: While human beings plan and exercise control, God, the Almighty, the Wise, remains cognizant of every detail of their actions, and any power outside His will is limited, however accomplished it may appear.

Conclusion: The Trajectory of the Hypothesis

The decline of the British Empire opened the door to the reshaping of the Middle East; the rise of the United States gave Israel strategic support; global financial networks became influential elements in the economy; political influence through lobbying groups reinforces influence within the American system; and the digital revolution is redefining global power.

At the end of this trajectory, a new geopolitical reality may take shape, and within this scenario, the rise of Israel's growing regional influence is interpreted as the final stage in a long historical process.

A caution from a comprehensive perspective: From the perspective of the ordinary person, many events appear disconnected or random, and the idea that everything is part of a unified plan may therefore seem exaggerated. But if we view the universe as a system whose creation is meticulously ordered, it is possible to conceive of these events as part of a larger rhythm in which divine will intersects with the free actions of human beings. The hypothesis thus becomes a contemplative framework for understanding historical interactions, without denying human freedom or the complexity of the world.

A Closing Question

Why might America accept the risk of entering into conflict with Iran even though this could threaten the petrodollar, the foundation of its global power?

For Israel to assume primacy as an independent power, it must reduce its dependence on America, as the United States did after Britain's decline: building independent military, economic, and technological power, and developing alliances to control the region without needing its former patron. The ultimate goal is to become the direct dominant power on the regional stage, rather than merely a subordinate ally.